The price of healthFortune smiles on the boldEcartant the probability of a rate hike todayThe talent of Eric Fréchon is not at issueat the last regions of the continental FranceThis is the result of a certain aversion to riskThis will be the same preferably in bestIn other words the market may indigestionThe attention is captured the step magnetizedThe negotiations will be launched on November 24My employer does not compensate me for thisGazprom has been successful. At least in part. After several weeks of conflict, the Ukrainian Government announced yesterday that he guaranteed "the settlement of accounts for the natural gas imported in November and December 2008. A decision that comes a day before the end of the ultimatum by Gazprom. The Russian giant had hammered his intention to cut off gas from January 1st, if Kiev does not solve gas deliveries for the months of November and December as well as the fines related to the delays of payments. An amount estimated by Gazprom to $ 2.1 billion. Equipped with a well-performing communication, the Russian giant said even have set up a special unit to cut off gas.
This strategy provided a first victory. The major part of the debt was to be settled by the Ukraine last night, i.e. shipments in November and December 2008, an amount of $ 1.52 billion. "The penalties will be discussed once the debts on deliveries will be paid," explained the society of Ukrainian State of hydrocarbons, Naftogaz, which hoped to sign contracts for 2009 yesterday or today. Meanwhile, Gazprom felt that it was "too early" to talk of a settlement of the conflict. The Ukraine is a key to Gazprom partner: 80 of Russian gas delivered to Europe passes through that country.
For the Russian group, the first decision of the Ukraine falls to. Make by the fall in the price of a barrel, the firm created by the former Minister of the gas industry of the USSR, Viktor Chernomyrdin, seen valorization collapse by 74 since the beginning of the year, to fall to $ 85.5 billion. 837 Billion roubles ($28.5 billion) in debt, the group now barely to refinance and recognizes be "unable to estimate reliably the effects on his accounts of a new deterioration in the liquidity of financial markets and the increased volatility of currencies and the stock".
A loan of the Russian State
Beginning of December, Gazprom had also to ask the Russian Government a loan of $ 5.5 billion to be able to launch the 32 billion dollars of investment plans for 2009. Essential to the renewal of the reserves, these investments will be in a difficult environment. Correlated to the oil, the price for the sale of Gazprom in Europe should indeed be between 260 and 300 dollars the 1,000 m3 in 2009, more than 400 dollars this year.
However, limit the dispute with the Ukraine to a debt problem would be a parse error. "This conflict is more political than economic." "For Moscow, it is to increase the pressure on the Ukraine to maximize the tensions between the Ukrainian President, Viktor Yushchenko and Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko", said Laurent Vinatier, research associate at the Thomas More Institute. In early October, the Ukraine with Vladimir Putin signed a memorandum paving the way for the renewal of the supply contract and integrating a gradual transition to the prices of market here in 2011. His rival, Viktor Yushchenko, was on a harder position. "last but not least", this offensive strategy has enabled Moscow to pay a country which has supported Tbilisi during the war in Georgia and which displays its ambition to join NATO soon. What generate the irritation of the Kremlin.