What generate the irritation of the KremlinThe price of healthFortune smiles on the boldEcartant the probability of a rate hike todayThe talent of Eric Fréchon is not at issueat the last regions of the continental FranceThis is the result of a certain aversion to riskThis will be the same preferably in bestIn other words the market may indigestionThe attention is captured the step magnetizedThe negotiations will be launched on November 24Real estate crisis requires, the market trembling in recent months with the approach of the year-end ritual: determination by the independent experts, of the value of the assets real estate held by the land and other investors in the stone. The prospect of massive writedowns had precipitated the stock market fall of the land, as their bank loans can become payable if too sharp drop in value of the portfolio of assets guaranteeing them. The value of expertise to the 31 December will be announced by each land to the presentation of annual accounts 2008. However, experts have already given their customers tables of values. Interviewed by "Les echos", they opted for significant impairment, but lower than the fears of the market.
"Concerning the offices, expertise have identified an average decrease in value of 10 to 15 from December 2007," said Maurice Gauchot, President of CB Richard Ellis (CBRE) France, one of the major players in the sector. "Financial analysts expected no doubt worse but a portfolio is not static: there are also the factors of increase of the value of the offices, including the progression of the rents on the basis of their indexing on the construction cost index, CCI, which increased very strongly ( 8.85) to January first", he says. However, it is rare, except for renovation of a building, that it be reassessed, contrary to what was until last year.
more difficult 2009
Depreciation is similar among others. "We have very few cases where the decline in value of the offices is lower than 10." "On many folders in Ile-de-France, falling to floor 10 to 20, in some cases 25 ", says Michael Morris, Chairman of Jones Lang Lasalle Expertise. For Atisreal, its balance sheet appears the more moderate: "in 2008, there was a large rehabilitation work on the buildings, and if there has been cases of offices 15 depreciation and beyond, the range in the majority of cases will instead of 0 to 10 ", says Jean-Claude Dubois, President of Atisreal Expertise.
Malls are a more stable asset class, releasing a drop of lesser value, the order of 8 to 10 on average for CBRE France, or 5 to 15 for Jones Lang Lasalle ( 2 to 5 at AtisReal). "Value adjustment had begun in the first quarter for offices, he was late for shopping centres, since it is engaged only in the second half in the light of the decline in the consumption of households," says Michael Morris. Moreover, he adds, "it must be an economic slowdown that is important to change the value of businesses, but today we have not yet figures Insee of the consumption of households in December.
The limited nature of depreciation applied by the experts in real estate business in late December will make the hardest fall in 2009 "This year may be more difficult than 2008, find Jean-Claude Dubois. The crisis took an economic dimension and are rates of occupation of the offices that will be the most at risk. But some bank financing are linked to occupancy rates, when it is the income of the building covering debt. "Vacancy rates and lower rents by renegotiation will now be monitored closely.