In other words the market may indigestionThe attention is captured the step magnetizedThe negotiations will be launched on November 24My employer does not compensate me for thisEurope finds itself in a very tense situationA recognized degree is of course essentialIn three years the index had declined from 35It research this is the project the envyNegative the price of wines by the glass 7 clNew forms of payment credit card InternetEveryone hope. And each facing the slightest sign. Will the resumption soon visible What are good indicators Can we build on 2010 Earlier Much later There are so many legitimate mobile these crowds of worried queries that we forget to question the idea of recovery.
While at first glance, the concept does not appear raise great difficulty. What hopefully what not, simply, that business resume Obviously, it expected both the return of growth, expansion, and hirings, bull markets of the profits. In less naive terms, if we think about various cycle proposed by the theorists of the economy, is facing the inflection point where the general decline will be reversed, which will start the ascent of the indices, where the combined cuts leave place to return to the status quo ante, the previous situation.
This is precisely the problem! Speaking of recovery, is not first that a return to the same, or almost. We can only imagine that the future will reproduce the past. The future world, if all goes well, will be identical to the old world. This will be the same, preferably in best. In any case, this will be a world very similar to what we know. The old and new will look like two drops of oil. Cleared the regression, forgotten crisis. Once overcome these accidents of course, everything will start again as before.
And if that was not the case If it had well over there, but just not repeated the same If on the contrary everything left, but... also, otherwise, according to new procedures If one led, eventually, a truly different world Is underestimated, ultimately, the fact that the recovery may also be a mutation, a restart. Instead of serve only quantitative return to an already known world, it can be a qualitative change, i.e. a leap into the unknown.
What would be another world More sustainable, less destructive, more green More sober, slower, less hungry Better regulated, fair What contingencies. By definition, it cannot say anything for sure. Indeed, if it was really predictable, this mutant world is neither nine nor unknown. All what you should remember is that economic life could resume any otherwise that we think. Nothing does that, without being upset substantive fundamentally, it is actually processed. All in all, this would be the image of what is going on in music: when an instrument takes over the melody, the air remains the same, but everything can change stamp, registry, tessitura, or same tempo.
This means that must be prepared to react to situations in which the data are not knowable in advance. This is true, the first Chief, for leaders, but also, overall, applies to all actors in the economy. The situation is paradoxical: how readying to react to what is unknown The resumption of what we already know is obviously no difficulty. But a recovery that leads to what is unknown cannot be subject to no preparation. Except for a form of training to the improbable to the emergence of the chance.
Such training at random has a very long history. In fact, were the was already in Athens in the 5th century before our era. When asked to Diogenes, the cynical philosopher, profit had withdrawn it philosophy, he replied: "if anything, at least to be ready for any eventuality." It does suggest certainly not businessmen, to be ready for anything, to live in a barrel, and to fortify, as Diogenes, to endure the cold or the hot. But to practice be not taken by surprise, especially when you can predict anything, should be at the top of any manual of survival. It could be that a bit of philosophy is essential to play the next recovery.