This will be the same preferably in bestIn other words the market may indigestionThe attention is captured the step magnetizedThe negotiations will be launched on November 24My employer does not compensate me for thisEurope finds itself in a very tense situationA recognized degree is of course essentialIn three years the index had declined from 35It research this is the project the envyNegative the price of wines by the glass 7 clBig oil companies have found a rate of renewal of their resources meet last year. Followed closely by the financial community, this flag is passed in the green in most of the "majors", after a year quite catastrophic. According to the methods of calculation of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), ExxonMobil has managed to replace its production of gas and oil to 136 in 2008, against 76 the previous year. Same observation for Chevron with turnover of 146 against less than 15 in 2007. Total displays a figure of 101, BP 121 and 97 Shell (including oil sands). Only ConocoPhilips registers disappointing results with a rate of 86 in 2008.
How to explain this reversal Improved results in part from the decline in the price of oil. The collapse of the course impact mechanically volumes assigned to the majors under the production sharing contracts. When prices fall, the share of the oil companies increases, allowing them to post many more barrels in reserves. This price effect can be considerable. He has represented for Chevron an equivalent volume of 550 million barrels oil last year, is about 60 of its production in 2008. All while the reserves must be economically viable at the price of a barrel of December 31 in order to be taken into account by the SEC (see box). The year 2007 then is a rather favorable comparison basis insofar as it had been marked by expropriations in a number of countries (Russia, Venezuela...). For example, ExxonMobil lost 500 million barrels of reserves following the nationalizations imposed by President Chavez on the Venezuela. Finally, the number of players like ExxonMobil, Total or Shell recorded a decrease in production in 2008. For example, ExxonMobil saw production fall by 3 last year at constant perimeter and 6 if it includes disposals of assets. A decline that course facilitates the renewal of used reserves.
Risk aversion
Behind these good results lies but a persistent problem. Despite huge investments, big oil companies remain unable to replace their reserves of oil and gas by the mere fact of exploration. In the past five years, organic renewal rate has never exceeded 80, according to a study that come from publish Bernstein analysts (see chart). BP and ENI are even below the 50 mark. To compensate for their loss of profits, the companies must therefore make acquisitions. "The majors have more success than before drilling and their access to the reserves of countries has become more difficult," confirms Simon Wardell, consultant in the firm of IHS.
The majors also made strategic mistakes. They did not take positions on major deposits as fields in deep offshore of the Brazil or Ghana. They are players of second rank as the American Anadarko or Tullow Oil working on giant deposit of Jubilee in Ghana. A exception of ExxonMobil, large multinationals are little present in the Santos basin to the Brazil, a contrario from Spanish Repsol-YPF, British BG and Galp Energia Portuguese.
This is the result of a certain aversion to risk. Richer and better endowed with skills, the majors are more cautious than their competitors of average size because they are more sensitive to the profitability of the invested capital. "It is a perpetual choice between risk exploration and redemptions of deposits," explains Katy Rave, analyst at Bernstein Research. The value of oil tankers of second rank and their assets is now interesting. It is likely to encourage the majors to buy, rather than throwing themselves heavy exploration programs.