The talent of Eric Fréchon is not at issueat the last regions of the continental FranceThis is the result of a certain aversion to riskThis will be the same preferably in bestIn other words the market may indigestionThe attention is captured the step magnetizedThe negotiations will be launched on November 24My employer does not compensate me for thisEurope finds itself in a very tense situationA recognized degree is of course essentialThe European Central Bank, which is meeting today, should maintain its unchanged interest rates. Investors are betting on the maintenance of its interest rate to 3.25.
At its last meeting, on 5 October, the ECB had decided to increase its rate of a quarter of a point. Its Governor, Jean-Claude Trichet, had then found the character "accommodating" indicated and monetary policy that the Council "will continue to monitor very closely all developments." But he had not uttered the word of "vigilance", become the synonym of imminent increase in market interest rates, as it did the previous time. Ecartant the probability of a rate hike today.
Market bet, however, a monetary tightening at the next meeting of the ECB, on 7 December, and on any additional action in the first half of 2007. The reason European growth is robust, but inflationary risks exist. "If the latest data on inflation are relatively reassuring, the risk of a rise in prices persist", underscores Clemente de Lucia, an economist at BNP Paribas. Index estimated prices for consumption in the euro area in October, published Tuesday, is so high at 1.6 in annual landslide. But, as stated by Jean-Claude Trichet last week, oil prices could rise and an increase in wages threaten the stability of prices. Not to mention the inflationary pressure of VAT in Germany increase in January. Finally, another area of concern, the monetary mass progresses strongly in the euro area, increasing from 8.5 in September, after a growth of 8.2 the previous month.
The prospect of a rise in the rate of the ECB in the coming months supports the euro, at a time where the US Federal Reserve is moving towards a status quo that extended, on a background of economic slowdown in the United States.
The euro
These last two days, the euro, which ended yesterday to 1,277 dollar after registering in session one more top since September 25 1,2798 dollar, benefited from disappointing us statistics. The index thus has American consumer confidence has fallen to 105.4 points in October against 105.9 points in September, according the Conference Board. Expected by the consensus at 53, the ISM manufacturing index was of 51.2 in October, after 52.9 the previous month. These figures were fed easing on the bond market us, the performance of the ten year bonds us losing 7 basis in two sessions at 4,557 points. The European bond market is also significantly relaxed, the French OAT performance yielding 10 points base, 3.73, in two days. The greenback remained stable against the yen, with a dollar to 117,05 yen, despite the meeting of the Bank of the Japan. Unsurprisingly, the institution decided unanimously to maintain its main interest rate unchanged, at 0.25, Tuesday. But the operators, which anticipated an increase of rates by the end of the year, have been disappointed by his comments that were very cautious. Indeed, the Governor Toshihiko Fukui reiterated that monetary policy would be adjusted in a gradual manner, the activity. He has, again, stated that he had no idea preset on the "timing" of the next recovery The Bank cooled expectations of an upward revision of its forecast growth for 2006, in the now. Worse, it revised downward its estimate of inflation. "The likelihood of a rise in rates in the Japan in 2006 has now decreased", judge Tom Levinson, strategist at ING.